2023 Hurricane season has begun - Invest 92L

[Zanshin]

I come from flying gliders, and meteorology has long been of great importance to me. I remember reading that even if one had a probe in every cubic meter of air that measured temperature, humidity, wind direction and speed the mathematics of chaos theory (and Brownian motion) would still not allow an accurate forecast beyond several days. That still applies, but our weather modelling has gotten much better over they years.

I'm in Martinique right now, and Invest 92L is barrelling towards the Caribbean


The spaghetti models are still all over the place, but the general consensus is that next Thursday the TRS will be just 20-30 miles east of me with winds up to 60 knots. I'm protected by the massive island, but once the storm system passes to the north of me, the winds will shift and I'll get 30 knots coming from the NW along with some big waves. My anchorage is not protected in that direction.

So my plan is to decide on Monday if I'm going to escape south (you always go south in the hurricane zone - the NW quadrant of a tropical storm or hurricane is known as the "death zone").

One always needs to keep a constant eye on the weather while in the Caribbean during the meteorological hurricane season. The "insurance hurricane season" starts and ends about 1-2 months before the meteorological one does... I wonder why?

[Charlie-Bravo]

A variety of ‘apps’ predict a path deviation north of your position …….. but the NHC is probably the best info, plus being the worst case should be acted upon.
Hope you find a good bolt hole before it arrives, ….. secure that dinghy!

CB

[Zanshin]

I normally would have just sailed straight south to Carriacou, Grenada. I've not been there before, and this would be a perfect time to go. But my passport runs out in October, and Grenada requires 6-months validity upon entry. I've found a telephone number for C&I there and although they should be open now, I've not gotten a response yet. I think that they might let me in for 2 weeks. With the advent of biometric passports, it isn't possible to extend a passport anymore, and I need to return home in order to apply for a new one.

The models are changing frequently right now; I'll stop monitoring the weather until tonight or tomorrow morning and then make my decision. Worst case I'll head to the docks at Rodney Bay in St. Lucia a little earlier than I'd planned.

[Charlie-Bravo]

Rodney Bay looks a sound bolt hole from most directions, and a much shorter distance, plus if it is known to you, that must be a plus point, going to an unknown spot on Grenada in a rush , with potentially bad weather may not be wise, and at least it’s on the way to Grenada.

Spent some time on Grenada, some serious food places there, I had a chicken satay starter, (Morgan Freeman a table or two away) which was so good I booked another two weeks there as soon as I got home ! 
All part of about ten years windsurfing the world, now replaced with more economical and less energetic pursuits , great times over that neck of the woods, Conch curry was another winner.

CB

[Zanshin]

Well, I just arrived in Fort-de-France in Martinique. I blew out the clew on my genoa the short sail here. Now I have to rethink my plans.

I had some great experiences with Morgan Freeman years ago on Virgin Gorda in the BVI. He's an accomplished singlehanded sailor (he's got a Shannon called "Afrodesia"). A very nice person indeed, I've remained in contact with him over the years.